/image%2F1092704%2F20170423%2Fob_25e5a7_p1040287-1-3.jpg)
/http%3A%2F%2Fassets.over-blog.com%2Ft%2Ftwentyeleven%2Fimages%2Fpine-cone.jpg "Maintaining the Good Momentum")
Slowing
Published on June 14 2019
| Borrower | CIFI Holdings (Group) |
| Amount | 300,000,000 USD |
| 93.8 |
| Reference rate | 5Y UST Yield |
| Margin | 8.57 |
| Coupon Rate | Show
Coupon Rate
5.375% before 24/08/2022, then 5Y UST Yield+8.375%
|
| Current coupon rate | 5.375% |
| Yield : 7.7% |
| Bond Code | Bid Price | Ask Price | Transaction Date |
|---|---|---|---|
| XS1881533480 | 103.03 | 103.34 | 14-Jun-2019 |
| XS1881533480 | 103.07 | 103.38 | 13-Jun-2019 |
| XS1881533480 | 103.08 | 103.39 | 12-Jun-2019 |
| XS1881533480 | 103.04 | 103.34 | 11-Jun-2019 |
| XS1881533480 | 103.04 | 103.34 | 10-Jun-2019 |
| XS1881533480 | 103.08 | 103.38 | 07-Jun-2019 |
| XS1881533480 | 103.08 | 103.38 | 06-Jun-2019 |
| XS1881533480 | 103.09 | 103.39 | 04-Jun-2019 |
| XS1881533480 | 103.12 | 103.40 | 03-Jun-2019 |
| XS1881533480 | 103.12 | 103.41 | 31-May-2019 |
| XS1881533480 | 103.14 | 103.44 | 30-May-2019 |
| XS1881533480 | 103.14 | 103.44 | 29-May-2019 |
| XS1881533480 | 103.14 | 103.44 | 28-May-2019 |
| XS1881533480 | 103.14 | 103.44 | 27-May-2019 |
| XS1881533480 | 103.14 | 103.44 | 24-May-2019 |
| XS1881533480 | 103.15 | 103.44 | 23-May-2019 |
| XS1881533480 | 103.15 | 103.45 | 22-May-2019 |
| XS1881533480 | 103.15 | 103.44 | 21-May-2019 |
| XS1881533480 | 103.14 | 103.43 | 17-May-2019 |
| XS1881533480 | 103.14 | 103.43 | 16-May-2019 |
| XS1881533480 | 103.18 | 103.50 | 15-May-2019 |
| XS1881533480 | 103.27 | 103.58 | 14-May-2019 |
| XS1881533480 | 103.34 | 103.68 | 13-May-2019 |
| XS1881533480 | 103.30 | 103.69 | 10-May-2019 |
| XS1881533480 | 103.28 | 103.70 | 09-May-2019 |
| XS1881533480 | 103.28 | 103.70 | 08-May-2019 |
| XS1881533480 | 103.28 | 103.70 | 07-May-2019 |
| XS1881533480 | 103.31 | 103.71 | 06-May-2019 |
| XS1881533480 | 103.28 | 103.70 | 03-May-2019 |
| XS1881533480 | 103.28 | 103.70 | 02-May-2019 |
| XS1881533480 | 103.25 | 103.64 | 30-Apr-2019 |
| XS1881533480 | 103.25 | 103.64 | 29-Apr-2019 |
| XS1881533480 | 103.25 | 103.64 | 26-Apr-2019 |
| XS1881533480 | 103.25 | 103.64 | 25-Apr-2019 |
| XS1881533480 | 103.26 | 103.64 | 24-Apr-2019 |
| XS1881533480 | 103.26 | 103.64 | 23-Apr-2019 |
| XS1881533480 | 103.26 | 103.64 | 22-Apr-2019 |
| XS1881533480 | 103.26 | 103.64 | 18-Apr-2019 |
| XS1881533480 | 103.30 | 103.69 | 17-Apr-2019 |
| XS1881533480 | 103.31 | 103.69 | 16-Apr-2019 |
| XS1881533480 | 103.45 | 103.74 | 15-Apr-2019 |
| XS1881533480 | 103.49 | 103.74 | 12-Apr-2019 |
| XS1881533480 | 103.49 | 103.75 | 11-Apr-2019 |
| XS1881533480 | 103.46 | 103.74 | 10-Apr-2019 |
| XS1881533480 | 103.46 | 103.74 | 09-Apr-2019 |
| XS1881533480 | 103.46 | 103.74 | 08-Apr-2019 |
| XS1881533480 | 103.46 | 103.74 | 05-Apr-2019 |
| XS1881533480 | 103.52 | 103.80 | 04-Apr-2019 |
| XS1881533480 | 103.49 | 103.81 | 03-Apr-2019 |
| XS1881533480 | 103.49 | 103.76 | 02-Apr-2019 |
| XS1881533480 | 103.52 | 103.76 | 01-Apr-2019 |
| XS1881533480 | 103.50 | 103.75 | 29-Mar-2019 |
| XS1881533480 | 103.32 | 103.51 | 28-Mar-2019 |
| XS1881533480 | 103.28 | 103.47 | 27-Mar-2019 |
| XS1881533480 | 103.28 | 103.47 | 26-Mar-2019 |
| XS1881533480 | 103.22 | 103.49 | 25-Mar-2019 |
| XS1881533480 | 103.05 | 103.31 | 22-Mar-2019 |
| XS1881533480 | 103.05 | 103.33 | 21-Mar-2019 |
| XS1881533480 | 103.10 | 103.37 | 20-Mar-2019 |
| XS1881533480 | 103.10 | 103.37 | 19-Mar-2019 |
| XS1881533480 | 103.08 | 103.36 | 18-Mar-2019 |
| XS1881533480 | 103.07 | 103.33 | 15-Mar-2019 |
| XS1881533480 | 103.07 | 103.33 | 14-Mar-2019 |
The latest market indicator of Euro-Zone inflation expectations – the 5-yr/5-yr inflation-linked swap rate printed a new all-time low at 1.165%.
The indicator measures inflation expectation over a five-year period starting five years from now. This will be a major headache for the ECB whose remit is to maintain inflation rates below, but close to, 2% over the medium-term.
NZD’s decline with local front-end government bond yields was initiated by dismal New Zealand Manufacturing PMI below. Growth clocked in at a snail’s pace, just 50.2 in May versus 53.0 prior. That was the softest pace of expansion since December 2012 and follows a steady slowdown since the beginning of this year. This underscored action taken by the RBNZ to cut rates back in May as inflation slowed.
Hours later, both the AUD and NZD extended losses as the National Australia Bank (NAB) and Royal Bank of Canada in Sydney envisioned the RBA cutting rates further in the near-term. The former sees rates at 0.75% by November. The latter sees them at 0.5% by May 2020. Overnight index swaps are now pricing in a greater than 60% chance of a cut from the Reserve Bank of Australia next month.
New Zealand PMI data showed a significantly smaller expansion compared to April and sent NZDUSD lower which was later followed by a decline in AUDUSD and Australian government bond yields. The latter appears to have come as a result of increased speculation of another rate cut by the RBA.
In times of risk aversion, investors typically put a premium on liquidity over returns and frequently flock to anti-risk assets like the US Dollar and Treasuries. In this case, if economic data shows weakness, it will reinforce the narrative of the doves that looser credit conditions are becoming increasingly necessary. Usually, this would result in a weaker Greenback and lead to an exodus of capital in USD as we’ve seen recently seen.
However, since the economic circumstances appear more dire now relative to before, a dovish shift in the Fed may not actually result in a weaker Dollar. This is because market participants may question why the central bank is cutting rates. The inevitable conclusion is that prevailing economic conditions are bad enough that policymakers felt compelled to lower interest rates. In times of crisis, where do investors typically flock?
To haven assets! The quintessential one of which is the US Dollar.
The 2008 financial crisis
A key moment represented by the USD/CAD crude oil correlation chart is the financial crisis of 2008, which caused demand for energy to shrink later in the year. In the event, oil collapsed from a July high of $147 to a December 2008 low of $32. Meanwhile, as the chart shows, CAD also fell against USD in the wake of this lower demand.
The 2015 oil slump
Another landmark event can be seen in 2015, when the price of a barrel of crude oil plummeted. This occurrence was caused by a strong US Dollar, OPEC’s unwillingness to stabilize the oil markets, and several Gulf nations refusing to cut production, which would have firmed up prices. Against this backdrop, CAD suffered again.
Late 2018: Oil and Canadian Dollar correlation breaks down
Despite the history of correlation between CAD and crude oil, some believe the relationship is breaking down, pointing to late 2018 when oil’s surge actually left CAD behind. This divergence is due to factors such as OPEC policies being a key influencer of oil price rather than organic supply and demand factors, monetary policy becoming a bigger driver of CAD than oil in recent years, and Canada’s efforts to diversify its economy and lessen its reliance on oil.
REASONS WHY USD/CAD AND OIL PRICES MOVE TOGETHER
The reasons for the USD/CAD crude oil correlation include Canada’s status as leading oil exporter, supply and demand considerations, and the revenues in USD that Canada enjoys as a result of its exporting activity.
Canada is an important net exporter of oil
Canada is the fourth largest exporter of crude oil in the world, according to 2018 figures. Due to the country’s status as a net exporter of oil, its currency in relation to USD is highly correlated to oil prices. oil.
13/06/2019
14/06/2019
13/06/2019