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Published on October 20 2019
07/2019
08/2019
Zhongliang Holdings Group Company Limited
中梁控股集團有限公司
Zhongliang Holdings Assigned “B+” Rating by Fitch and S&P,
and “B1” Rating by Moody's, with Stable Outlook
Moody’s believes that B1 reflects Zhongliang Holdings’s strong brand name among the second and lower tier cities of the Yangtze River Delta region and its contracted sales record is good. In 2018, Zhongliang Holdings’ contracted sales in the Yangtze River Delta region accounted for 59.4% of the total sales, where there is good demand for residential properties.
Zhongliang Holdings' liquidity position is also solid. The cash balance at the end of 2018 was RMB23.1 billion, which was 1.6 times its short-term debt. Looking ahead, Moody's expects Zhongliang Holdings’ contracted sales will increase by 10%-15% per annum to reach around RMB120-140 billion in 12-18 months, while its revenue and cash flow will witness a growth for the same period.
Standard & Poor's says that Zhongliang Holdings has excellent sales records in the Yangtze River Delta region, exhibiting strong sales execution and cash collection with well-managed liquidity position. Zhongliang Holdings will continue to grow its contracted sales and revenue, and improve its funding channels and costs while maintaining stable leverage in the next 12 months.
In addition, Standard & Poor's anticipates better banking relationships and access to more diverse funding following the listing.
Fitch considers that Zhongliang Holdings' ratings are underpinned by its contracted sales scale, comparable “BB” category homebuilders. Zhongliang Holdings’ 353 projects spread across five core economic regions in China, which also helps to mitigate its potential regional economic and policy risks.
The rapid expansion of Zhongliang Holdings from 2015 to 2018 depends on its standardization of its entire property development chain. Zhongliang Holdings has also become one of the top 20 real estate developers in China.
08/2019
Fitch Ratings assigned Zhongliang rating of B+, with a stable outlook.
Fitch said the company's ratings were supported by contracted sales scale, which is comparable to other homebuilders in the BB category. It believes that Zhongliang's 353 projects across China's five core economic regions help mitigate possible regional economic and policy risks. It cited low inventory and margins, strong growth and significant minority shareholders as among the factors driving the ratings.
Fitch expects the company's leverage to increase to 40% to 45% over the next three years after taking into account proceeds from its recent IPO. The agency added that Zhongliang's faster-turnover model of selling land soon after acquisition results in a short land-bank life, as well as low adjusted inventory base and EBITDA margin, which could prove volatile for the company's financial profile.
Moody's assigns B1 rating to Zhongliang ; outlook stable
Zhongliang's B1 reflects the company's strong brand name in second-tier and lower-tier cities in the Yangtze River Delta region, and robust track record of contracted sales growth.The Yangtze River Delta region contributed around 59.4% of the company's contracted sales in 2018.
Moody's expects Zhongliang will continue to expand to other regions, such as Central and Western China, the Bohai Rim Region, and Pearl River Delta, to reduce its exposure to local regulatory measures and regional economy volatilities.
The company has a track record of robust contracted sales growth, underpinned by strong housing demand in lower-tier cities over the past two years and strong sales execution. As a result, the company's contracted sales rose 56% year-on-year to RMB101.5 billion in 2018, following 242% year-on-year growth in 2017.
Looking ahead, Moody's expects Zhongliang's contracted sales will grow 10%-15% per annum to reach around RMB120-140 billion in the next 12-18 months. Such a situation will support growth in both revenue and cash flow generation over the same period.
Moody's expectations considers the company's high level of saleable resources, which totaled 36.1 million square meters of gross floor area across 334 residential projects at the end of 2018. Zhongliang's land bank as of December 2018 could support around three years of property development.
Although the company's scale is large in terms of contracted sales value, its debt leverage -- as measured by revenue/adjusted debt -- shows some cyclicality, in line with its B1-rated peers.
The company's debt leverage improved to 89% in 2018. Moody's expects it will slightly weaken to around 75%-85% over the next 12-18 months as Zhongliang takes on debt to fund land replenishment.
Zhongliang's interest coverage -- as measured by adjusted EBIT/interest -- improved to 2.5x in 2018 from 1.5x in 2017. Moody's expects that its interest coverage will be maintained at 2.6x over the next 12-18 months, after factoring in the expected lower finance cost following its listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange and improved access to onshore and offshore funding.
Zhongliang's B1 CFR is constrained by the concentration of its land bank in second-tier and lower-tier cities, and by its reliance on expensive non-bank financing. At the end of 2018, 83% of the company's land bank was located in lower-tier cities and the remaining 17% in second-tier cities. Moody's expects demand in lower-tier cities to weaken over the next 12-18 months, given that the Chinese government has scaled back its funding for the resettlement of shantytown residents. This change in policy will negatively affect Zhongliang's operating performance, and is already incorporated in Moody's forecast for the company's contracted sales growth for the next 12-18 months.
Zhongliang's B1 CFR is also constrained by the company's reliance on expensive non-bank financing. Onshore trust loans and loans from asset management companies accounted for around 58% of its total reported debt at end 2018. However, the company's listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange in July 2019 could help broaden its funding channels in the future.
Zhongliang's liquidity position is good. The company's cash balance of RMB23.1 billion at the end of 2018 covered 160% of its short-term debt. Such cash holdings, together with the company's operating cash flow, should be sufficient to cover its short-term debt and estimated committed land payments over the next 12-18 months.
With respect to governance risks, Moody's has considered the risk associated with the concentration of the company's ownership in its controlling shareholders, Mr. Yang Jian and his spouse, who held a 84.2% stake in the company at 18 July 2019. The financial risk associated with this ownership concentration is partly mitigated by (1) the presence of three independent non-executive directors on a board of seven directors, and of two independent non-executive directors chaired the audit and remuneration committees, and (2) the application of the Listing Rules of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange and the Securities and Futures Ordinance in Hong Kong.
The stable rating outlook reflects Moody's expectation that Zhongliang will continue to grow its contracted sales, maintain its good liquidity position, and remain prudent in its land acquisitions.
S&P assigns B+ rating to Zhongliang with a stable outlook
The rating reflects Zhongliang's high exposure to lower-tier cities, low profit margins, untested ability in higher-tier cities, and small land bank.
The rating also reflects the company's high financial leverage and uneven capital structure, with material exposure to nonbank financing and short-term debt. These weaknesses are tempered by the Chinese property developer's strong sales execution and cash collection, well-managed liquidity, and good record in the Yangtze River Delta,
The stable outlook reflects the rating agency's view that Zhongliang Holdings Group will continue to grow its contracted sales and revenue, and maintain stable leverage while improving its funding channels and costs over the next 12 months. Rating expects the property developer to continue to operate with high but stable leverage, despite some improvement in 2019. It is also anticipates some improvement in the diversification of the company's capital structure and funding costs.
Zhongliang Holdings Group Co. Ltd. Assigned 'B+' Rating With Stable Outlook
https://www.ademcetinkaya.com/2019/08/zhongliang-holdings-group-co-ltd.html
S&P assigns B+ rating to Zhongliang
10/2019
Zhongliang announced certain unaudited operating statistics
Contracted Sales
Achieved RMB100.5B in First Nine Months of 2019, up approx. 36% YoY Completed 77% of Full Year Sales Target
News Updates
Zhongliang Holdings strives to optimize its capital structure by exploring different financing channels in an active manner. In September, we successfully launched the debut US dollar bond with positive market response. The Group announced the issuance of US$300 million 11.5% senior notes due 2021 on 19 September, with 2.5 times oversubscribed, affirming investors' confidence in the Group's credit and its development prospects.
On 27 September, we announced additional issuance of US$100 million senior notes due 2021. The Notes will be listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, while the Notes are rated "B2" by Moody's and "B+" by Fitch Ratings.
Land Acquisition
From January to September in 2019, the Group added a total of 104 land parcels, with an aggregate land premium of approximately RMB52 billion.
1H2019
合約銷售額為 637 億元人民幣，較去年同期上升 26.8%，於中國地產行業中排名約第 20 位，擠身一線發展商之列。
收入為 206 億元，按年增長 111%；股東應佔淨利潤為 12 億元，按年增長 81.8%，盈利表現良好。
然而毛利率下降至 24.5%（2018年中：27.3%）。
信貸狀況 : 短期計息負債為 145 億元，現金儲備（加上受限制現金）的總值約為 230 億元，短期償債能力不錯。另外集團的淨負債率約為 43.5%，於內房行業中表現不錯。不過要留意的是當中較大部份為受限制現金，當中主要是在建項目的保證金，實際流動性會較低。
集團成功於 7 月上市集資 32 億港元，令流動性提高，對債券持有人來說是一個正面消息。雖然同期集團派發中期股息總額約 4.9 億元人民幣，比例較同業高，但亦反映出集團對其財政狀況的穩健有一定信心。
值得留意的是，集團的土儲集中於二線及以下城市，於樓市受壓情況下毛利率將受到更大影響，而現時只得約 2.8 倍的利息覆蓋率反映出集團的借貸成本偏高。
中梁：1H2019 营收净利双升 融资结构有待改善
上半年营收翻倍有余，应占核心净利润增长超八成。然而在负债与融资上的表现却稍显逊色：融资渠道较大依赖信托、融资成本高居。
营收及净利的大增
2019 上半年，中梁控股实现结算营业收入 205 亿，同比增长 111%；上半年合并归属于上市公司股东净利润 12.32 亿元，同比增长 88.4%；实现毛利润 50.35 亿元，较去年同期的 26.6 亿元增长 89.2%。
毛利率出现下滑，由去年同期的 27.3% 降至 24.5%；净利润率较此前几年有所提升，为 9.2%。对于毛利率的下滑，中梁控股表示，主要是因为期内交付的物业项目的土地成本相较于售价较高所致。
在销售方面，2019 年上半年，中梁控股合约销售金额及销售面积分别为 637 亿元、 603 万平方米，同比分别增长 27%、29%。报告期内合约销售金额排名第 15 位。 在 2016-2018 年的三年时间内，中梁控股完成了由三位数到四位数的销售业绩突破，其规模位次也从 Top 30 跃升到 Top 20。但销售增速已然开始放缓。
因企业规模基数已经较大，后续业绩增长的空间势必会有所压缩。 从三四线向一二线 业务布局主动“调结构” 眼下，在三四线城市房地产市场降温、棚改红利渐失的新市场形势下，昔日重仓三四线的中梁控股，则有意转换赛道。
2016-2018 中梁控股分别获地 63 块、119 块、221 块，其中对应分别有 34 块、88 块、168 块地位于三四线城市，占比分别为 54%、74%、76%。 而半年报显示，2019 上半年，中梁控股新进入国内 18 个城市，包括西安、天津、南京等重点二三线城市。新收购的地块共有 70 幅，新增规划总建筑面积约为 810 万平方米。
中梁控股业务布局转舵一二线的举动，更像是针对房地产变化所作出的战略应对与适时调整。在当前国内房地产市场下行、三四线红利消退的新阶段，唯有均衡城市布局，才能更加有效地对抗行业周期及政策变动带来的市场波动风险。
在 2019 中期业绩报告会上，中梁控股副总裁游思嘉曾表示，“为有效分散经济及政策的风险，在储备到销售战略方面，全国各区域各等级城市均有布局。
过度依赖信托融资
2019 房企普遍面临双重考验：一是调控政策的持续，二是来自融资环境的压力。而在上述双重考验之下，几乎所有房地产企业在融资及销售两个层面均有所承压，中梁控股亦难以幸免。
2019 年 1300 亿 的销售目标，前 9 个月的销售金额达 1005 亿，完成全年目标的 77.3%。
三四线城市房地产市场的降温以及棚改红利的逐渐消失，将给中梁控股的销售带来多大的影响，未来仍然有待进一步观察。融资渠道较大依赖信托、融资成本高居，也是外界对中梁控股的一大关注重点。
1H2019 中梁控股银行贷款 145 亿，其他借款 142 亿。借款总额的加权平均债务成本为 10%。今年下半年以来，在政策层面上，包括银行贷款、信托、境外发债等在内的融资渠道都在缩紧，对于以现金为王的房地产行业来说，压力可想而知。售房预收款作为另一项重要的资金来源在这个时期更加重要，下半年众多房企均在加大推盘节奏，快速回笼资金。
一般来说，楼盘单价下调 100-500 元属于比较合理的降价，即价格小幅下跌，相对安全和稳妥，也能够刺激购房需求的释放。而对于部分单价下调幅度较大的房企来说，或与产品的结构因素有关。 众所周知，三四线城市近年来才逐渐成为房企的“狩猎”对象，与一二线城市的房价逻辑截然不同，并不稳定，各家房企也都在摸索前行。
在房地产市场调控、货币化棚改政策调整之下，三四线城市房价涨速出现回落，降温速度整体大于一二线。9 月份在三四线城市项目比重较多的房企，销售价格环比可能就会出现较为明显的下跌。
中梁控坦言，上市后，公司会更加追求稳健地发展，进一步拓宽融资渠道，努力做好负债与规模扩张之间的平衡，追求无风险的销售增长。
今年下半年以来，在政策层面上，包括银行贷款、信托、境外发债等在内的融资渠道都在缩紧，对于以现金为王的房地产行业来说，压力可想而知。售房预收款作为另一项重要的资金来源在这个时期更加重要，下半年众多房企均在加大推盘节奏，快速回笼资金。
一般来说，楼盘单价下调 100-500 元属于比较合理的降价，即价格小幅下跌，相对安全和稳妥，也能够刺激购房需求的释放。而对于部分单价下调幅度较大的房企来说，或与产品的结构因素有关。
众所周知，三四线城市近年来才逐渐成为房企的“狩猎”对象，与一二线城市的房价逻辑截然不同，并不稳定，各家房企也都在摸索前行。在房地产市场调控、货币化棚改政策调整之下，三四线城市房价涨速出现回落，降温速度整体大于一二线。9 月份在三四线城市项目比重较多的房企，销售价格环比可能就会出现较为明显的下跌。
赴港 IPO 竟为偿还信托贷款
2016年，发家于温州的中梁控股将总部移至上海。2017年提出“3000亿”的销售目标。在各大房企开始战略收缩之时，中梁控股逆势拿地融资。
据招股书数据，中梁控股2016年、2017年、及2018年全年的销售额分别为190亿、649亿、1015亿，成功跨入千亿阵营，近三年年复合增长率超过70%。
在中指数研究院的“2019中国房地产百强企业”名单中，中梁控股位列27位，排在泰禾集团之前。在2019年克而瑞2019年房地产企业销售金额排行榜中以1288.7亿元的成绩排名23位。
值得注意的是，中梁控股是房地产30强中唯一一家还未上市的地产公司。众所周知，一个好的财务总监对于上市有着不可或缺的作用，然而这对于这家逆势崛起，擅于利用信托融资的高杠杆地产公司来说却成为了稀缺资源。
06/2017 绿地香港前首席财务官游德锋离职后加入中梁地产，4 个月便提出辞职。01/2018 中梁控股从泰禾集团挖来首席财务官罗俊，同样过了 4 个月后辞职。此后，中梁控股的财务总监由凌新宇担任。04/2019 原旭辉地产 CFO 游思嘉、碧桂园原财务总经理吴渊加盟中梁地产，职位均为副总裁，中梁控股努力地招募行业人才。
融资成本高企，信托融资占比六成
中梁控股更新的招股书中披露，IPO 募资的款项有以下用途，一是公司现有物业项目或项目阶段 (温州中梁鹿城中心、宿迁中梁首府及新的江油中梁首府) 的建筑成本。
二是偿还绝大部分的若干现有信托贷款。其中主要是 2019 年到期的四笔信托贷款，这些信托贷款均为中梁控股项目公司的流动资金贷款。包括（1）07/2019 到期的年利率 11.5% 信托贷款、（2）09/2019 到期的年利率 11.5% 的信托贷款、（3） 11/2019 到期的年利率 12.5% 的信托贷款，（4）11/2019 到期的年利率 13.83% 信托贷款。三是中梁控股的一般营运资金。
2016-2018 中梁控股未偿还借款总额为 202 亿元，245 亿元和 270 亿元加权平均实际利率为 9.4%，7.9% 和 9.9%。
中梁控股有 58% 的借款来自于信托和资管产品。03/2019 借款余额达 123 亿元，其中最高利率达 18.5%。普遍成本在 12%-13%。大部分项目均有股权质押，土地抵押和担保。而其中的大部分款项是在 2018 借来的。信托业内人士表示。
03/2019 中梁控股土地储备规划总建筑面积 3890 万平方米，在长三角、珠三角、中西部、环渤海、海峡西岸五大区的 23 个省份 124 座城市布局 353 个项目。尤其是长三角，中梁控股的土地储备占比为 45.4%。
激进的经营风格
除了长三角区域外，业务范围已经扩展到环渤海，海峡两岸，中西部和珠三角区域。以三四线城市为主。其业务范围、人才战略、经营模式都在向碧桂园学习。因此，中梁控股也有“小碧桂园”之称。
中梁控股 2016-2018 的物业销售收入分别为 29 亿元，139 亿元和 300 亿元。实现了业绩的三连跳。此前中梁内部曾提出了 4 个月开盘、5 个月现金流回正、6 个月资金进行第二次投入。为了鼓励区域公司：项目开盘后达到“456”的标准，立即获得100 万元的内部奖励。